The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of market liquidity to gauge longer-term market sentiment and equity and index options (put/call ratios) to identify short-term entry and exits.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Friday, October 17, 2014

The virtues of discipline

Well I'm back from a backpacking trip and I learned the hard way about the value of discipline and the pain of not following my trading rules. As I indicated in a prior post, I used some of my idle cash to buy into the market on pullbacks because I wasn't going to have access to a computer and there was a chance that my short-term indicator would generate a buy signal. Unfortunately, it didn't happen and I was left with a greater than ideal exposure to the market. I took the opportunity today to sell (for a small loss), the trades I had made before my backpacking trip. So as it stands now, my equity exposure is 25% of what it would be normally if I were fully invested. For the IRA however, this equates to a 49% equity position comprised of 9% core, 2.5% alpha, 7.3% sector, and 30% dividend/low volatility stocks -- My asset allocation for the IRA emphasizes dividend and low volatility stocks during times of "reduced" equity exposure and de-emphasizes "core" and "alpha". Now, I don't foresee a short-term signal until sometime between October 24 and October 31. According to my rules, the only other events that would trigger buying are (1) a positive weekly RSI divergence, or (2) a penetration of a trailing ATR3 stop. In regard to no. 1, a divergence can be formed next week if the market trades near this week's low of 1820 or lower and closes above 1886.76. With no. 2, the stop now stands at 1910.37. With all three scenarios, I would also like to see a break of the downward trending money flow indicators. That's all for now.