The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of market liquidity to gauge longer-term market sentiment and equity and index options (put/call ratios) to identify short-term entry and exits.

If you are an investor, there's no need to concern yourself with the short-term trades that I occasionally discuss. The notes in the left-hand pane will provide you with my high-level outlook for the calendar year and for the next 12 months. The left pane will also contain alerts about possible intermediate-term reversals to help you make timely decisions for rebalancing your portolio, taking profits, or putting new money to work.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Monday, February 5, 2018

Wowed, but not worried

Despite the market correction today, I'm not concerned.  However, as I've mentioned in the past, 10% corrections are normal.  My macro indicator continues to exhibit strength so I'll be looking for opportunities to deploy accumulated cash once I see RSI divergences in the charts.

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Less Worried

As I mentioned in my previous posts, my macro indicator was exhibiting deterioration which if sustained (to lower levels) would indicate a possible market top in March of 2018.  Over the last five weeks, however, the macro indicator has strengthened and I now believe that it's less likely that the market will undergo a significant correction in March.  I continue to be fully invested and don't plan to change my stance. 

Saturday, September 2, 2017

Nothing new but something to think about

As I noted in my past posts, the positive bias should remain in force until at least March of 2018.  My macro indicator is showing a peak at this time.  Although the indicator has exhibited some deterioration, it's still far from levels that would get me worried.  I'll post an update if this deterioration accelerates and if it forewarns a greater than "normal" pullback.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Positive bias still in force

In my last post, I mentioned the possibility that the longer-term trend might change based on my macro indicator.  Since that time, however, the indicator has not deteriorated further.  Thus, I am confident that a positive bias over the longer-term will stay in force until the Spring of 2018 at minimum.  In the short term, there still remains the possibility of a pullback into June.  Current weekly RSI charts support this opinion.

Friday, March 31, 2017

Is something lurking on the horizon

In the intermediate term, nothing has changed my view that the market is headed higher.  There still remains a chance for a pullback into June.  I'm a bit surprised that my macro indicator hasn't wavered. In fact, it's showing a strong upward bias until Spring of 2018.  The indicator, however, is finally showing some (minor) deterioration which could translate to a peak in March of 2018.  It's way to early to make that call but it'll be interesting to see what the trajectory of my macro indicator will be going forward.