The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of market liquidity to gauge longer-term market sentiment and equity and index options (put/call ratios) to identify short-term entry and exits.

If you are an investor, there's no need to concern yourself with the short-term trades that I occasionally discuss. The notes in the left-hand pane will provide you with my high-level outlook for the calendar year and for the next 12 months. The left pane will also contain alerts about possible intermediate-term reversals to help you make timely decisions for rebalancing your portolio, taking profits, or putting new money to work.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

I'm all in

With the macro indicator pointing up for the next several months, combined with healthy technicals, I deployed my cash and am now fully invested.  As far as technicals, I would have liked to see a positive weekly RSI divergence, but it appears that the market will form a "V" and head upwards from this point forward.  A break above 2139 will satisfy a 3ATR reversal and signal a new trend.

Thursday, August 4, 2016

Maybe a good time to shed your least favorite stocks

As I mentioned in my last post, we could experience a correction into October.  Recent market action, specifically the weekly RSI of the S&P500, is exhibiting a negative divergence.  This is in line with my macro indicator.  Thus, if you have positions that haven't served you well and you'd like an opportunity to use monies from these positions to buy something else at possibly attractive prices in the coming months, I would consider doing so now.  I plan to lighten up on some alpha but stay the course with my dividend stock portfolio

Sunday, July 3, 2016

What's on the Horizon

Despite the market volatility, staying in the market has proven to be a sound approach.  Since my last post in which I recommended being in the market, I haven't sold anything.  Looking forward, I just want to reiterate that there could be a correction in the fall.  Specifically, the macro indicator is showing a possible peak in August followed by a trough in late October.  I would use any corrections during this period as a buying opportunity.

Looking further forward, I'm keeping my eye out for possible deterioration in the early summer of 2017.  My (leading) macro indicator heads down beginning in June and it's too early to tell whether the summer will represent a significant peak.  In other words, my macro indicator hasn't gone negative yet.  For those that have been following my blog, I consider a macro reading of -20 to be significant and a signal of a possible bear market.

So for now, I don't plan to do anything but to look for opportunities to add to positions in late Fall if the market corrects.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Soon it will be riskier to be out of the market

As I've mentioned in my prior posts, the macro indicator points to a trough in mid-April.  The likelihood of experiencing a significant pullback is diminishing.  Again, to reiterate, there's a possibility of a fall pullback, but the overall risk of being out of the market are greater than staying in cash.  The macro indicator is showing positive signs into the spring of 2017.

Today, I increased my dividend stock exposure (slightly) by buying CMP and WFC which are still undervalued.  I deferred buying these two stocks a couple of months ago because of their lower relative performance.  Because I have a positive bias on the market over the intermediate and long term, I went ahead and bought them.

The only segment of my portfolio that still remains mostly in cash is what I call "Alpha" or my core equity allocation which makes up 20% of my portfolio.  I plan to deploy my cash to fill this allocation within the next week depending on market action.

So in summary, my plan is to be fully invested soon.  I'll likely have a few percentage points in cash because certain dividend stock selections remain overvalued and aren't yet candidates for purchase.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Still keeping to my word

So it's been awhile since my last blog post, but nothing has changed my opinion or my plans going forward.  The month of March should be very telling -- as I mentioned in my prior post, my macro indicator shows a weak March with a trough as we approach April.  I will be looking for opportunities to become fully invested over the next month if the market "behaves" as anticipated.