The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of futures and equity and index options.

If you are an investor, there's no need to concern yourself with the short-term trades that I discuss. The notes in the left-hand pane will provide you with my high-level outlook for the calendar year and for the next 12 months. The left pane will also contain alerts about possible intermediate-term reversals to help you make timely decisions for rebalancing your portolio, taking profits, or putting new money to work.

If you are a short-term trader, I will detail in my blog posts ideas for going long and short the S&P indices to capitalize on the aforementioned reversals.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.

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Monday, May 5, 2014

Holding Steady

With the negative open today, I refrained from opening any new trades today. My short-term model is pointing to potentially better entry points around the third week in May. So rather than going in all at once, I'm looking for opportunities to scale in with the objective of being fully invested in a few weeks.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

The Elusive Correction -- Time to Buy!!

What a disappointment -- the much desired correction didn't come. That's what I get for wanting something so badly. So what to do now? As I mentioned in earlier posts, my macro indicator is very positive from 5/14 onwards. Within the last couple of weeks, my short-term indicator flashed a buy (4/21) and the S&P a day later on the 22nd, broke a trailing ATR3 stop to the upside @ S&P 1878, thus signaling a positive trend. I didn't act on these two signals because we were still in the "Red" phase according to my macro indicator. However, given the impending macro "Green" phase (on 5/14), I've had to give those two signals more credence. As a result, I've decided to go all in and restore my equity positions to their fully invested level. For those of you trying to understand my approach, I score and weigh my signals and when the score hits certain levels, I act. The scoring components are: (1) a phase change in the macro indicator [1 point], (2) a weekly positive RSI divergence [1 point], (3) a break of a ATR3 trailing stop [1 point], and (4) a signal from my short-term indicator [0.5 point]. During a "Green" macro phase, I buy on 2 points. During a "Red" macro phase, I buy on 2.5 points. Right now, given that 5/14 is just around the corner, I consider that we're in the green -- the indicator is termed "macro" for a reason. Thus, the "2 point" rule has been satisfied. I don't see any significant risks for the next 12 months, so let's cross our fingers. Although, I reduced my equity position and sacrificed some gains in the last 3 months, this has been a lesson in risk management. After all, it's the gains you realize (keep) that count. Happy Investing!!

Thursday, March 6, 2014

March 13 Top?

I'm more confident now that a reversal will begin around March 13 -- suggesting a top at that time.  It's fair to say that I'm wishing for this to happen since the run up to the 1880 region has been somewhat of a surprise. I would then be looking for an entry point no later than May 1.  The exact entry point will likely be based on my Fibonacci analysis which now points to support levels at 1800, 1770, and 1730 -- these levels are based on a possible high at 1900.  The appropriate buy point will be based on the market's "behavior" if the correction does happen.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Buy on the dip soon

The run up from the 1740 level has been strong, but I anticipate one last pullback before seeing a rally that will take us to new highs.  The market has been "acting" ahead of my long-term macro indicator and it, combined with my short-term options model, is signaling a corrective top sometime between March 6 and March 13.  I'll be highlighting some potential entry points in upcoming posts.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Done deal....See you in about 3 months

With the options market showing signs of fear (as is the VIX) and the low likelihood of a recovery today above 1814.75, I pulled the trigger at 1803 to reduce my equity position to 30% (actually 26.9 by the time I finished executing all my trades) with a 1:4 ratio of alpha to low vol/dividend stocks.

I was really hoping to catch a higher peak for this "final" selling but oh well.  I would rate my trading "performance" a B+ -- sold 50% at 1825 and then another 20% or so at 1803.  If the market tanks, then I'll give myself a higher grade :)

As I mentioned in my posts over the last few months, this weakness should persist for the next three months or so.  Therefore, I'm going to sit back and wait for a buying opportunity.