The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of futures and equity and index options.

If you are an investor, there's no need to concern yourself with the short-term trades that I discuss. The notes in the left-hand pane will provide you with my high-level outlook for the calendar year and for the next 12 months. The left pane will also contain alerts about possible intermediate-term reversals to help you make timely decisions for rebalancing your portolio, taking profits, or putting new money to work.

If you are a short-term trader, I will detail in my blog posts ideas for going long and short the S&P indices to capitalize on the aforementioned reversals.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Had to Trim Equity Holdings

With a intra-day break of the ATR4 stop I sold 75% of core positions at S&P 1963. For the IRA (non-cash) account, I remain 50% invested in equities. More later on this development.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Deployed Cash Today

With improved money flow as measured by Chaikin and the formation of a positive RSI divergence at last Friday's close, I deployed all sidelined cash into the market earlier today.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Positive Divergence Formed, BUT NOT SO FAST!

The rally on Friday was enough to create a weekly positive RSI divergence. However, in looking at money flow (as measured by the Chaikin Oscillator), it didn't offer any confirmation to support a fully bullish stance at this point. My short-term options-based indicator is still projecting a buy signal on the 18th or 19th. Based on the parameters discussed, I will likely invest 50% of sidelined cash on the 18th or 19th; however, if or when the Chaikin Oscillator breaks the downward trendline as depicted in the chart below, I will invest 100% (given that a positive divergence has already been formed). Any breakdown below the prior week's low will change the aforementioned "entry" plan.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Re-entry Strategy

I just wanted to share my approach for investing the cash that was recently sidelined. My plan is to deploy 50% of sidelined cash into the market when I get a signal from my short-term indicator. Based on projections from my model today, it appears that a bottom might occur on our about August 19 -- when this date becomes firm, I will post another update. If on the other hand, a positive (weekly) RSI divergence is formed OR the S&P breaks its trailing ATR3 stop which now sits at 1963, I will buy 100% of sidelined cash. I expect that this trailing stop will continue lower over the next 1-2 weeks. It's conceivable that the short-term indicator might "fire" first, so I might be re-entering the market in two stages. Although I'm not targeting any specific level, my Fibonacci analysis indicates strong support at 1860 and 1820.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Took some profits today

Despite the positive long-term view, the market broke its ATR3 trailing stop today. Thus, my trading rules lead me to reduce my equity position on my cash account to 50%. For the IRA, I trimmed my equity position from 73% to 55%. More later on the re-entry strategy.