The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of futures and equity and index options.

If you are an investor, there's no need to concern yourself with the short-term trades that I discuss. The notes in the left-hand pane will provide you with my high-level outlook for the calendar year and for the next 12 months. The left pane will also contain alerts about possible intermediate-term reversals to help you make timely decisions for rebalancing your portolio, taking profits, or putting new money to work.

If you are a short-term trader, I will detail in my blog posts ideas for going long and short the S&P indices to capitalize on the aforementioned reversals.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.

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Thursday, January 22, 2015

Fully invested

With the intra-day break above ATR3 stop at 2063, I invested the remaining idle cash near the close.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Trades Executed

With the down market open, I traded 50% of sidelined cash at S&P 2015. Given that I was already 25% invested, this incremental amount puts me at approximately 62% invested.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Time to Trade

My short-term indicator is likely to fire a buy signal on Thursday. Given the possibility for the ECB to announce further QE, the question is whether to buy early (tomorrow) or after the announcement on Thursday. It's a bit of a crap shoot, but given improving money flow, I like the setup and I plan to invest 50% of idle cash tomorrow by 10:30 Pacific. If the market continues to rise, I will invest the remaining 50% upon an intra-day penetration of 2063. If the ECB disappoints on Thursday, I will follow the ATR3 down and buy my second round at a lower point. Based on my macro indicator, I still believe in a positive bias through August. The macro indicator continues to weaken beyond that point but I'm not ready to call August the top.

Monday, January 12, 2015

So what's the plan now?

The market failed to penetrate the trailing ATR3 stop on Friday but that level 2063 still remains a potential buy target. However, my short-term indicator is pointing to a possible buy signal on or abouts January 22. Hoping for lower levels for a nice entry.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Evening Analysis -- Plan for Friday

In reviewing the day's action, I'm less concerned primarily because of the lack of diverging signals. Prior tops have always coincided with divergences in either money flow or RSI -- that condition doesn't exist. Also, every time in the past when the money flow indicators have penetrated the zero-line to the upside, the market continued to rally. I believe that the recent decline to 1992 was technically significant because it essentially touched the long-term upward trend line. Thus, the correction is likely over. This combined with a healthy macro condition, my objective is to buy on a break of the nearby ATR3 stop at 2063.65.