The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of futures and equity and index options.

If you are an investor, there's no need to concern yourself with the short-term trades that I discuss. The notes in the left-hand pane will provide you with my high-level outlook for the calendar year and for the next 12 months. The left pane will also contain alerts about possible intermediate-term reversals to help you make timely decisions for rebalancing your portolio, taking profits, or putting new money to work.

If you are a short-term trader, I will detail in my blog posts ideas for going long and short the S&P indices to capitalize on the aforementioned reversals.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Friday, December 19, 2014

No trades on Friday

The money flow indicators came close to penetrating the downward sloping trendline but failed. Even if they had broken to the upside, the market is again near resistance and the weekly RSI is tracing a divergence. Both these conditions are in my opinion, poor setups for a long trade. As an update to a prior post, my macro indicator resumed its downtrend after meandering for a few weeks. Technically, it's still not at a low enough level for me to call an August 2015 top. Therefore, well just have to continue watching it's progress week by week.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Game plan for Friday 12/19

In reviewing money flow indicators this evening, I confirmed that inflows were not enough to take out the downward-pointing trendline since mid-November. However, it's possible that this could occur tomorrow. Specifically, I'll be looking for the Chaikin money flow indicator to continue it's advance as confirmation. Assuming that this occurs while the S&P is above 2044, I'll be deploying 100% of idle cash.

Patience

So the market rebound is obviously impressive and key levels are being penetrated that would normally cause me to jump back in. Most notably, the trailing ATR3 stop at 2044 broke today on an intra-day basis. I'll assess the technicals and ensure that money flow indicators confirm the health of the upward move before jumping back in.

Friday, December 12, 2014

Weekly recap

I executed two major trades by selling a total of 75% of core positions at two key levels 2040 and 2027. As usual, I could have done even better if I had sold earlier (i.e., not waiting until both of my longer-term indicators were showing negative divergences). Even if this correction is short-lived, it feels good to have taken some profits off the table. It's not clear what the re-entry point will be. There is some support in the 2000 region, but if the market doesn't hold here, I would be looking for support in two areas -- either 1945 or 1905-1920. The macro indicators are still pointing to a positive 2015 until at least August.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Took some profits

My short-term indicator flashed a sell signal last Friday but even though other short-term indicators I track (e.g., money flow) were confirming that a correction was possible, I didn't take any action. I didn't because, the longer-term (weekly) indicators such as RSI were not yet tracing any divergences. My objective for this week was to watch out for any divergences (i.e., a close below 2072) and to possibly take profits on 50% of core positions. Given the nature of weekly indicators, I would normally wait until Friday to draw any conclusions. However, given the apparent shift in momentum, I took sold 50% of my core positions this morning at S&P 2040. The next key level is 2027 which represents the ATR4 trailing stop. A break of this level will lead me to sell 75% of remaining open core positions.