Well, it's all in

As it often happens, things don't pan out like you think they will -- particularly when politics dominates the market.  From a pure technical perspective, a positive RSI divergence was formed on Friday and on top of that, the market broke out above the trailing 3ATR stop.  Both of these "signals" warranted a 100% buy-in for core positions in my portfolios.  As mentioned in prior posts, my macro indicator has been positive since 9/18, so these recent events buoyed the case for being in equities.  For now, the next potentially tenuous period might be in late January when I see the chance for a correction.  However, that will be another buying opportunity for an upward leg into next fall.

Yes, I'm still here waiting

As I mentioned in my prior post, too much time transpired for a short-term top to form to pursue a short trade.  The macro indicators I follow will be trending up into next spring so I will only be trading on the long side.  So the next question is when to buy in.  Normally, I would look to a weekly divergence between price and the RSI.  This occurred in late June but not since.  Such a divergence would represent a strong buy signal and would prompt me to trade 100% to the long side. Second, I would look for a 3ATR reversal (a break above S&P 1676) as a fall back.  This occurred on September 10.  Under normal circumstances, that would have prompted me to trade 50% to the long side, however, my short-term indicators were flashing caution.  This short-term options-based indicator is now indicating that a buy signal might be generated around 10/16.  If by then the S&P is above 1676, I will trade 100% long; however, if only one of the two indicators is flashing a buy, I will only trade 50%.