Paying more attention

My macro indicator is continuing to decrease and is now at 24.  As you might recall, I consider a dip below -20 significant (see red line below).  Given the continued possibility that the indicator could reach this level, I'm extending the window for a possible top.  In my past posts, I sited a possible top in early May.  Because the indicator has taken so long on its path downward (and because it's almost May), I'm now looking at a window extending to the secondary top on or about July 10 as shown below.  Each of the subsequent minor tops in September and November provides possible timeframes for a peak in the S&P 500 if my indicator dips to -20.  Stay tuned......

Broken Record: Continued deterioration but the pace hasn't accelerated

The "value" of the macro indicator now stands at 54 -- As I mentioned in prior posts, I would become worried once it falls to -20 or less.  So for now, I'm staying the course.  It's times like this that I value the benefit of macro indicators because with the ebb and flow of news headlines about an impending recession, it's easy to become an "emotional investor." 

With that said, I'm still assessing the possibility of an early-May top.  If the indicator falls below -20 before then, the signal from my indicator will be relatively clear.  However, if it (the indicator) falls sometime afterwards (without first making a new or intermediate high), it will become more challenging to "find" the top in the S&P.  I'll worry about this when the time comes.