The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of market liquidity to gauge longer-term market sentiment and equity and index options (put/call ratios) to identify short-term entry and exits.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Monday, April 11, 2016

Soon it will be riskier to be out of the market

As I've mentioned in my prior posts, the macro indicator points to a trough in mid-April.  The likelihood of experiencing a significant pullback is diminishing.  Again, to reiterate, there's a possibility of a fall pullback, but the overall risk of being out of the market are greater than staying in cash.  The macro indicator is showing positive signs into the spring of 2017.

Today, I increased my dividend stock exposure (slightly) by buying CMP and WFC which are still undervalued.  I deferred buying these two stocks a couple of months ago because of their lower relative performance.  Because I have a positive bias on the market over the intermediate and long term, I went ahead and bought them.

The only segment of my portfolio that still remains mostly in cash is what I call "Alpha" or my core equity allocation which makes up 20% of my portfolio.  I plan to deploy my cash to fill this allocation within the next week depending on market action.

So in summary, my plan is to be fully invested soon.  I'll likely have a few percentage points in cash because certain dividend stock selections remain overvalued and aren't yet candidates for purchase.