The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of market liquidity to gauge longer-term market sentiment and equity and index options (put/call ratios) to identify short-term entry and exits.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Yes, I'm still here waiting

As I mentioned in my prior post, too much time transpired for a short-term top to form to pursue a short trade.  The macro indicators I follow will be trending up into next spring so I will only be trading on the long side.  So the next question is when to buy in.  Normally, I would look to a weekly divergence between price and the RSI.  This occurred in late June but not since.  Such a divergence would represent a strong buy signal and would prompt me to trade 100% to the long side. Second, I would look for a 3ATR reversal (a break above S&P 1676) as a fall back.  This occurred on September 10.  Under normal circumstances, that would have prompted me to trade 50% to the long side, however, my short-term indicators were flashing caution.  This short-term options-based indicator is now indicating that a buy signal might be generated around 10/16.  If by then the S&P is above 1676, I will trade 100% long; however, if only one of the two indicators is flashing a buy, I will only trade 50%.