Continued deterioration but still too early to call

As I mentioned in my last post, the government shutdown delayed the release of commitment of traders data that I use for my macro indicator.  The data is now current through January 8 and my indicator is showing continued deterioration as shown in this chart.  The chart value is currently 145 after hitting a high of 255.  The indicator would need to reach a value of -20 (red horizontal line) before I would make a bearish call.  If that were to happen in the Spring, it would portend a peak in the S&P on or abouts the first week in May.

Data trickling in

With the government now open, the commitment of traders data I use to gauge fund flows will resume its publication each Friday.  However, based on an update that I got today, the agency responsible for releasing the data won't get caught up with its backlog until March 8 -- the data they plan to release this Friday will only be for the period ending December 25.  To expedite the process, they plan to publish reports on Tuesday and Friday (rather than just Friday) until they are current.  As usual, I'll update my market indicator as the data comes in and post any important details on this blog.

Riding the wave but now in the dark

I "stuck to my guns" during the recent correction as I didn't note any evidence of a possible bear market from my indicator.  With that said, I'm now in the "dark."  Because of the government shutdown,  the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has ceased publishing its Commitment of Trader's data that I use.  As I mentioned in my prior posts, I see a positive bias going into the Spring of 2019, but without the Commitment of Trader's data, I cannot confirm whether or not the "peak" exhibited by my indicator portends a bear market (S&P 500).  As usual, if I make any trading decisions, with or without this important data, I will let you know.

Bought on the pullback as planned

Last Friday, I put some extra cash to work after observing that the S&P would satisfy the criteria that I had detailed in my prior post for a positive RSI divergence.  I purchased additional dividend stocks and Apple for my tech holdings at an entry point of S&P 2715.  I still believe that the market will maintain a positive bias until at least Spring of 2019.  If necessary, I'll update my blog this weekend and speak to any changes to my macro indicator.

New entry points

The market failed to gain traction this past week so I'll be looking again for two events that would support "buying on the dip."  I would need to see the S&P 500 exceed the low of 2628.16 on the downside and close at or above 2658.71 on Friday.