The purpose of this site is to share results of a trading system that I use for identifying both long-term and short-term trading opportunities. I take the time to do this because of my passion for investing and helping others succeed. The system helped me avoid the "Crash of 2007/2008" and every major correction since then. The cornerstone of my trading system are analyses of market liquidity to gauge longer-term market sentiment and equity and index options (put/call ratios) to identify short-term entry and exits.

This site is for information purposes only. Past performance of the trading system is not a guarantee of its future success. Please consider consulting a qualified investment adviser before making investment decisions.



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Friday, March 31, 2017

Is something lurking on the horizon

In the intermediate term, nothing has changed my view that the market is headed higher.  There still remains a chance for a pullback into June.  I'm a bit surprised that my macro indicator hasn't wavered. In fact, it's showing a strong upward bias until Spring of 2018.  The indicator, however, is finally showing some (minor) deterioration which could translate to a peak in March of 2018.  It's way to early to make that call but it'll be interesting to see what the trajectory of my macro indicator will be going forward.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Full steam ahead with only minor bumps

Hello everyone.  I haven't written because I don't see any major events on the horizon. As I stated in my last post, I'm fully invested.  With that said, if you are wondering about entry points going forward, there might be a pullback upcoming as the weekly RSI has carved out a negative divergence. Other than that, my macro indicator is showing some weakness going into late June.  However, this weakness might only be short-term so I wouldn't necessarily wait until this time; rather, I would buy on any pullbacks because 2017 is shaping up to be good year according to my macro indicator.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

I'm all in

With the macro indicator pointing up for the next several months, combined with healthy technicals, I deployed my cash and am now fully invested.  As far as technicals, I would have liked to see a positive weekly RSI divergence, but it appears that the market will form a "V" and head upwards from this point forward.  A break above 2139 will satisfy a 3ATR reversal and signal a new trend.

Thursday, August 4, 2016

Maybe a good time to shed your least favorite stocks

As I mentioned in my last post, we could experience a correction into October.  Recent market action, specifically the weekly RSI of the S&P500, is exhibiting a negative divergence.  This is in line with my macro indicator.  Thus, if you have positions that haven't served you well and you'd like an opportunity to use monies from these positions to buy something else at possibly attractive prices in the coming months, I would consider doing so now.  I plan to lighten up on some alpha but stay the course with my dividend stock portfolio

Sunday, July 3, 2016

What's on the Horizon

Despite the market volatility, staying in the market has proven to be a sound approach.  Since my last post in which I recommended being in the market, I haven't sold anything.  Looking forward, I just want to reiterate that there could be a correction in the fall.  Specifically, the macro indicator is showing a possible peak in August followed by a trough in late October.  I would use any corrections during this period as a buying opportunity.

Looking further forward, I'm keeping my eye out for possible deterioration in the early summer of 2017.  My (leading) macro indicator heads down beginning in June and it's too early to tell whether the summer will represent a significant peak.  In other words, my macro indicator hasn't gone negative yet.  For those that have been following my blog, I consider a macro reading of -20 to be significant and a signal of a possible bear market.

So for now, I don't plan to do anything but to look for opportunities to add to positions in late Fall if the market corrects.