Paying more attention

My macro indicator is continuing to decrease and is now at 24.  As you might recall, I consider a dip below -20 significant (see red line below).  Given the continued possibility that the indicator could reach this level, I'm extending the window for a possible top.  In my past posts, I sited a possible top in early May.  Because the indicator has taken so long on its path downward (and because it's almost May), I'm now looking at a window extending to the secondary top on or about July 10 as shown below.  Each of the subsequent minor tops in September and November provides possible timeframes for a peak in the S&P 500 if my indicator dips to -20.  Stay tuned......

Broken Record: Continued deterioration but the pace hasn't accelerated

The "value" of the macro indicator now stands at 54 -- As I mentioned in prior posts, I would become worried once it falls to -20 or less.  So for now, I'm staying the course.  It's times like this that I value the benefit of macro indicators because with the ebb and flow of news headlines about an impending recession, it's easy to become an "emotional investor." 

With that said, I'm still assessing the possibility of an early-May top.  If the indicator falls below -20 before then, the signal from my indicator will be relatively clear.  However, if it (the indicator) falls sometime afterwards (without first making a new or intermediate high), it will become more challenging to "find" the top in the S&P.  I'll worry about this when the time comes.

Continued deterioration but still too early to call

As I mentioned in my last post, the government shutdown delayed the release of commitment of traders data that I use for my macro indicator.  The data is now current through January 8 and my indicator is showing continued deterioration as shown in this chart.  The chart value is currently 145 after hitting a high of 255.  The indicator would need to reach a value of -20 (red horizontal line) before I would make a bearish call.  If that were to happen in the Spring, it would portend a peak in the S&P on or abouts the first week in May.

Data trickling in

With the government now open, the commitment of traders data I use to gauge fund flows will resume its publication each Friday.  However, based on an update that I got today, the agency responsible for releasing the data won't get caught up with its backlog until March 8 -- the data they plan to release this Friday will only be for the period ending December 25.  To expedite the process, they plan to publish reports on Tuesday and Friday (rather than just Friday) until they are current.  As usual, I'll update my market indicator as the data comes in and post any important details on this blog.

Riding the wave but now in the dark

I "stuck to my guns" during the recent correction as I didn't note any evidence of a possible bear market from my indicator.  With that said, I'm now in the "dark."  Because of the government shutdown,  the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has ceased publishing its Commitment of Trader's data that I use.  As I mentioned in my prior posts, I see a positive bias going into the Spring of 2019, but without the Commitment of Trader's data, I cannot confirm whether or not the "peak" exhibited by my indicator portends a bear market (S&P 500).  As usual, if I make any trading decisions, with or without this important data, I will let you know.