Just not happening -- Staying the course

Because of all of the negative news about a possible recession, I thought I would publish a market update.  My macro indicator (which tracks institutional fund flows) peaked on May 8 and began a gradual descent.  However, in late June, it hit an intermediate low and now it appears to be attempting a new high.  So in a nutshell, the risk that we might see a market top in May of 2019 is weakening -- If a recession is on the horizon, institutional traders aren't yet worried.  If my indicator makes a new high in upcoming weeks, it would mean that we wouldn't see a possible market peak until the Fall of 2019 at the earliest.  I will publish an update if this happens.

Fully invested but what might be ahead

The intermediate and long term bias is still positive according to my macro indicator.  Over the last several weeks, however, my "macro" chart has plotted a possible peak which could portend a peak in the US markets on or about May of 2019.  I say that a peak is possible because the indicator is stuck in a tight range but it has yet to turn down.  For this reason, I feel comfortable being fully invested for now.

Wowed, but not worried

Despite the market correction today, I'm not concerned.  However, as I've mentioned in the past, 10% corrections are normal.  My macro indicator continues to exhibit strength so I'll be looking for opportunities to deploy accumulated cash once I see RSI divergences in the charts.

Less Worried

As I mentioned in my previous posts, my macro indicator was exhibiting deterioration which if sustained (to lower levels) would indicate a possible market top in March of 2018.  Over the last five weeks, however, the macro indicator has strengthened and I now believe that it's less likely that the market will undergo a significant correction in March.  I continue to be fully invested and don't plan to change my stance. 

Nothing new but something to think about

As I noted in my past posts, the positive bias should remain in force until at least March of 2018.  My macro indicator is showing a peak at this time.  Although the indicator has exhibited some deterioration, it's still far from levels that would get me worried.  I'll post an update if this deterioration accelerates and if it forewarns a greater than "normal" pullback.